比爾蓋茨哈佛演講稿

idn’t care, but because we didn’t know what to do. if we had known how to help, we would have acted.

此刻在這個院子裏的所有人，生命中總有這樣或那樣的時刻，目睹人類的悲劇，感到萬分傷心。但是我們什麼也沒做，並非我們無動於衷，而是因為我們不知道做什麼和怎麼做。如果我們知道如何做是有效的，那麼我們就會採取行動。

the barrier to change is not too little caring; it is too much complexity.

改變世界的阻礙，並非人類的冷漠，而是世界實在太複雜。

to turn caring into action, we need to see a problem, see a solution, and see the impact. but complexity blocks all three steps.

為了將關心轉變為行動，我們需要找到問題，發現解決辦法的方法，評估後果。但是世界的複雜性使得所有這些步驟都難於做到。

even with the advent of the internet and 24-hour news, it is still a complex enterprise to get people to truly see the problems. when an airplane crashes, officials immediately call a press conference. they promise to investigate, determine the cause, and prevent similar crashes in the future.

即使有了互聯網和24小時直播的新聞台，讓人們真正發現問題所在，仍然十分困難。當一架飛機墜毀了，官員們會立刻召開新聞發佈會，他們承諾進行調查、找到原因、防止將來再次發生類似事故。

but if the officials were brutally honest, they would say: "of all the people in the world who died today from preventable causes, one half of one percent of them were on this plane. we’re determined to do everything possible to solve the problem that took the lives of the one half of one percent."

但是如果那些官員敢説真話，他們就會説：“在今天這一天，全世界所有可以避免的死亡之中，只有0.5%的死者來自於這次空難。我們決心盡一切努力，調查這個0.5%的死亡原因。”

the bigger problem is not the plane crash, but the millions of preventable deaths.

顯然，更重要的問題不是這次空難，而是其他幾百萬可以預防的死亡事件。

we don’t read much about these deaths. the media covers what’s new – and millions of people dying is nothing new. so it stays in the background, where it’s easier to ignore. but even when we do see it or read about it, it’s difficult to keep our eyes on the problem. it’s hard to look at suffering if the situation is so complex that we don’t know how to help. and so we look away.

我們並沒有很多機會了解那些死亡事件。媒體總是報告新聞，幾百萬人將要死去並非新聞。如果沒有人報道，那麼這些事件就很容易被忽視。另一方面，即使 我們確實目睹了事件本身或者看到了相關報道，我們也很難持續關注這些事件。看着他人受苦是令人痛苦的，何況問題又如此複雜，我們根本不知道如何去幫助他 人。所以我們會將臉轉過去。

if we can really see a problem, which is the first step, we come to the second step: cutting through the complexity to find a solution.

就算我們真正發現了問題所在，也不過是邁出了第一步，接着還有第二步：那就是從複雜的事件中找到解決辦法。

finding solutions is essential if we want to make the most of our caring. if we have clear and proven answers anytime an organization or individual asks "how can i help?," then we can get action – and we can make sure that none of the caring in the world is wasted. but complexity makes it hard to mark a path of action for everyone who cares — and that makes it hard for their caring to matter.

如果我們要讓關心落到實處，我們就必須找到解決辦法。如果我們有一個清晰的和可靠的答案，那麼當任何組織和個人發出疑問“如何我能提供幫助”的時 候，我們就能採取行動。我們就能夠保證不浪費一丁點全世界人類對他人的關心。但是，世界的複雜性使得很難找到對全世界每一個有愛心的人都有效的行動方法， 因此人類對他人的關心往往很難產生實際效果。

cutting through complexity to find a solution runs through four predictable stages: determine a goal, find the highest-leverage approach, discover the ideal technology for that approach, and in the meantime, make the smartest application of the technology that you already have — whether it’s something sophisticated, like a drug, or something simpler, like a bednet.

從這個複雜的世界中找到解決辦法，可以分為四個步驟：確定目標，找到最高效的方法，發現適用於這個方法的新技術，同時最聰明地利用現有的技術，不管它是複雜的藥物，還是最簡單的蚊帳。

the aids epidemic offers an example. the broad goal, of course, is to end the disease. the highest-leverage approach is prevention. the ideal technology would be a vaccine that gives lifetime immunity with a single dose. so governments, drug companies, and foundations fund vaccine research. but their work is likely to take more than a decade, so in the meantime, we have to work with what we have in hand – and the best prevention approach we have now is getting people to avoid risky behavior.

艾滋病就是一個例子。總的目標，毫無疑問是消滅這種疾病。最高效的方法是預防。最理想的技術是發明一種疫苗，只要注射一次，就可以終生免疫。所以， 政府、製藥公司、基金會應該資助疫苗研究。但是，這樣研究工作很可能十年之內都無法完成。因此，與此同時，我們必須使用現有的技術，目前最有效的預防方法 就是設法讓人們避免那些危險的行為。

pursuing that goal starts the four-step cycle again. this is the pattern. the crucial thing is to never stop thinking and working – and never do what we did with malaria and tuberculosis in the 20th century – which is to surrender to complexity and quit.

要實現這個新的目標，又可以採用新的四步循環。這是一種模式。關鍵的東西是永遠不要停止思考和行動。我們千萬不能再犯上個世紀在瘧疾和肺結核上犯過的錯誤，那時我們因為它們太複雜，而放棄了採取行動。

the final step – after seeing the problem and finding an approach – is to measure the impact of your work and share your successes and failures so that others learn from your efforts.

在發現問題和找到解決方法之後，就是最後一步——評估工作結果，將你的成功經驗或者失敗經驗傳播出去，這樣其他人就可以從你的努力中有所收穫。

you have to have the statistics, of course. you have to be able to show that a program is vaccinating millions more children. you have to be able to show a decline in the number of children dying from these diseases. this is essential not just to improve the program, but also to help draw more investment from business and government.

當然，你必須有一些統計數字。你必須讓他人知道，你的項目為幾百萬兒童新接種了疫苗。你也必須讓他人知道，兒童死亡人數下降了多少。這些都是很關鍵的，不僅有利於改善項目效果，也有利於從商界和政府得到更多的幫助。

but if you want to inspire people to participate, you have to show more than numbers; you have to convey the human impact of the work – so people can feel what saving a life means to the families affected.

但是，這些還不夠，如果你想激勵其他人蔘加你的項目，你就必須拿出更多的統計數字；你必須展示你的項目的人性因素，這樣其他人就會感到拯救一個生命，對那些處在困境中的家庭到底意味着什麼。

i remember going to davos some years back and sitting on a global health panel that was discussing ways to save millions of lives. millions! think of the thrill of saving just one person’s life – then multiply that by millions. … yet this was the most boring panel i’ve ever been on – ever. so boring even i couldn’t bear it.

幾年前，我去瑞士達沃斯旁聽一個全球健康問題論壇，會議的內容有關於如何拯救幾百萬條生命。天哪，是幾百萬！想一想吧，拯救一個人的生命已經讓人何等激動，現在你要把這種激動再乘上幾百萬倍……但是，不幸的是，這是我參加過的最最乏味的論壇，乏味到我無法強迫自己聽下去。

what made that experience especially striking was that i had just come from an event where we were introducing version 13 of some piece of software, and we had people jumping and shouting with excitement. i love getting people excited about software – but why can’t we generate even more excitement for saving lives?

那次經歷之所以讓我難忘，是因為之前我們剛剛發佈了一個軟件的第13個版本，我們讓觀眾激動得跳了起來，喊出了聲。我喜歡人們因為軟件而感到激動，那麼我們為什麼不能夠讓人們因為能夠拯救生命而感到更加激動呢？

you can’t get people excited unless you can help them see and feel the impact. and how you do that – is a complex question.

除非你能夠讓人們看到或者感受到行動的影響力，否則你無法讓人們激動。如何做到這一點，並不是一件簡單的事。

still, i’m optimistic. yes, inequity has been with us forever, but the new tools we have to cut through complexity have not been with us forever. they are new – they can help us make the most of our caring – and that’s why the future can be different from the past.

同前面一樣，在這個問題上，我依然是樂觀的。不錯，人類的不平等有史以來一直存在，但是那些能夠化繁為簡的新工具，卻是最近才出現的。這些新工具可以幫助我們，將人類的同情心發揮最大的作用，這就是為什麼將來同過去是不一樣的。

the defining and ongoing innovations of this age – biotechnology, the computer, the internet – give us a chance we’ve never had before to end extreme poverty and end death from preventable disease.

這個時代無時無刻不在湧現出新的革新——生物技術，計算機，互聯網——它們給了我們一個從未有過的機會，去終結那些極端的貧窮和非惡性疾病的死亡。

sixty years ago, george marshall came to this commencement and announced a plan to assist the nations of post-war europe. he said: "i think one difficulty is that the problem is one of such enormous complexity that the very mass of facts presented to the public by press and radio make it exceedingly difficult for the man in the street to reach a clear appraisement of the situation. it is virtually impossible at this distance to grasp at all the real significance of the situation."

六十年前，喬治•馬歇爾也是在這個地方的畢業典禮上，宣佈了一個計劃，幫助那些歐洲國家的戰後建設。他説：“我認為，困難的一點是這個問題太複雜， 報紙和電台向公眾源源不斷地提供各種事實，使得大街上的普通人極端難於清晰地判斷形勢。事實上，經過層層傳播，想要真正地把握形勢，是根本不可能的。”

thirty years after marshall made his address, as my class graduated without me, technology was emerging that would make the world smaller, more open, more visible, less distant.

馬歇爾發表這個演講之後的三十年，我那一屆學生畢業，當然我不在其中。那時，新技術剛剛開始萌芽，它們將使得這個世界變得更小、更開放、更容易看到、距離更近。

the emergence of low-cost personal computers gave rise to a powerful network that has transformed opportunities for learning and communicating.

低成本的個人電腦的出現，使得一個強大的互聯網有機會誕生，它為學習和交流提供了巨大的機會。

the magical thing about this network is not just that it collapses distance and makes everyone your neighbor. it also dramatically increases the number of brilliant minds we can have working together on the same problem – and that scales up the rate of innovation to a staggering degree.

網絡的神奇之處，不僅僅是它縮短了物理距離，使得天涯若比鄰。它還極大地增加了懷有共同想法的人們聚集在一起的機會，我們可以為了解決同一個問題，一起共同工作。這就大大加快了革新的進程，發展速度簡直快得讓人震驚。

at the same time, for every person in the world who has access to this technology, five people don’t. that means many creative minds are left out of this discussion --- smart people with practical intelligence and relevant experience who don’t have the technology to hone their talents or contribute their ideas to the world.

與此同時，世界上有條件上網的人，只是全部人口的六分之一。這意味着，還有許多具有創造性的人們，沒有加入到我們的討論中來。那些有着實際的操作經驗和相關經歷的聰明人，卻沒有技術來幫助他們，將他們的天賦或者想法與全世界分享。

we need as many people as possible to have access to this technology, because these advances are triggering a revolution in what human beings can do for one another. they are making it possible not just for national governments, but for universities, corporations, smaller organizations, and even individuals to see problems, see approaches, and measure the impact of their efforts to address the hunger, poverty, and desperation george marshall spoke of 60 years ago.

我們需要儘可能地讓更多的人有機會使用新技術，因為這些新技術正在引發一場革命，人類將因此可以互相幫助。新技術正在創造一種可能，不僅是政府，還 包括大學、公司、小機構、甚至個人，能夠發現問題所在、能夠找到解決辦法、能夠評估他們努力的效果，去改變那些馬歇爾六十年前就説到過的問題——飢餓、貧 窮和絕望。

members of the harvard family: here in the yard is one of the great collections of intellectual talent in the world.