TED英語演講：愛情的三大祕訣

TED是Technology, Entertainment, Design(科技、娛樂、設計)的縮寫，這個會議的宗旨是"用思想的力量來改變世界"。TED演講的特點是毫無繁雜宂長的專業講座，觀點響亮，開門見山，種類繁多，看法新穎。而且還是非常好的英語口語聽力練習材料，建議堅持學習。下面是小編為大家收集關於TED英語演講：愛情的三大祕訣，歡迎借鑑參考。

演講者：Hannah Fry

演講稿

Today I want to talk to you about the mathematics of love. Now, I think that we can all agree that mathematicians are famously excellent at finding it's not just because of our dashing personalities, superior conversational skills and excellent pencil cases. It's also because we've actually done an awful lot of work into the maths of how to find the perfect partner.

今天我想要和大家談談關於愛情的數學。 我想大家都 同意數學家在尋找真愛上特別在行。 但那並不是是因為我們精力充沛的性格， 超凡的對話技巧，和極好的筆盒。也是 因為我們真的花了許多時間精力在數學上， 計算如何找到完美的伴侶。

Now, in my favorite paper on the subject, which is entitled, "Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --Peter Backus tries to rate his chances of finding love. Now, Peter's not a very greedy man. Of all of the available women in the UK, all Peter's looking for is somebody who lives near him, somebody in the right age range, somebody with a university degree, somebody he's likely to get on well with, somebody who's likely to be attractive, somebody who's likely to find him comes up with an estimate of 26 women in the whole of the 's not looking very good, is it Peter? Now, just to put that into perspective, that's about 400 times fewer than the best estimates of how many intelligent extraterrestrial life forms there are. And it also gives Peter a 1 in 285,000 chance of bumping into any one of these special ladies on a given night out. I'd like to think that's why mathematicians don't really bother going on nights out anymore.

現在，在此學科中我最愛的論文，名為 “為什麼我沒有女友”(笑聲) Peter Backus試着計算他尋得真愛的機會。 現在，Peter不是一個非常貪心的人。 在英國所有適宜的女性對象中， 彼得所看的，就只是那個住在他附近的對象， 某個處於適宜的年齡階段， 某個擁有大學文憑， 某個他很有可能相處地不錯的對象， 某個有魅力的女子， 以及某個認為他也富有魅力的對象。 (笑聲) 結果他估計在全英國大概有26位此類女性。 這看來很不妙，不是嗎，彼得? 我們好好思考一下這件事， 在無數聰明外星生命形式存在的情況下， 那是少於400倍數的估計呀。 那也給了彼得一個 在某晚遇見一個特別的女子 28萬5千之1的機會。 我寧願想就是着那為什麼數學家 不再怎麼想晚上出去約會了。

The thing is that I personally don't subscribe to such a pessimistic view. Because I know, just as well as all of you do, that love doesn't really work like that. Human emotion isn't neatly ordered and rational and easily predictable. But I also know that that doesn't mean that mathematics hasn't got something that it can offer us, because, love, as with most of life, is full of patterns and mathematics is, ultimately, all about the study of patterns. Patterns from predicting the weather to the fluctuations in the stock market, to the movement of the planets or the growth of cities. And if we're being honest, none of those things are exactly neatly ordered and easily predictable, either. Because I believe that mathematics is so powerful that it has the potential to offer us a new way of looking at almost anything. Even something as mysterious as love. And so, to try to persuade you of how totally amazing, excellent and relevant mathematics is, I want to give you my top three mathematically verifiable tips for love.

重點是，我個人其實並不 同意這種悲觀的看法。 因為我知道，如同你們所有所知道的， 愛情並不是這樣發生的。 人類的情感不是那樣地秩序井然，乾淨利落，邏輯清晰，以及容易預測。 但我也知道那並不意謂着 數學無法提供幫助， 因為愛情，如同生命中多數的事物一般，充斥着許多規律， 而數學，最終，就是那講求規律的學説。 從預測天候，到預測股票市場的開高走低， 到星球的運轉，或都市的發展。 如果我們對自己誠實的話，上述那些東西，沒有一個是 井然有序以及容易預測的。 因為我相信，數學的力量非常強大，以至於它讓我們得以以新方法 重新 看待 任何事物。就算是和愛情一般神祕的東西也是。為了試着説服你們 數學的神妙用處， 我想要給大家三個最重要的在數學上可以驗證的愛情祕訣。

OK, so Top Tip #1: How to win at online dating. So my favorite online dating website is OkCupid, not least because it was started by a group of mathematicians. Now, because they're mathematicians, they have been collecting data on everybody who uses their site for almost a decade. And they've been trying to search for patterns in the way that we talk about ourselves and the way that we interact with each other on an online dating website. And they've come up with some seriously interesting findings. But my particular favorite is that it turns out that on an online dating website, how attractive you are does not dictate how popular you are, and actually, having people think that you're ugly can work to your me show you how this works. In a thankfully voluntary section of OkCupid, you are allowed to rate how attractive you think people are on a scale between one and five. Now, if we compare this score, the average score, to how many messages a selection of people receive, you can begin to get a sense of how attractiveness links to popularity on an online dating website.

好，首先最重要的祕技一： 如何 贏得線上交友的機會。我最愛的線上交友網站是OkCupid(網站名：好吧，丘比特)， 這並不 僅僅因為這網站是由一羣數學家所架設的。因為他們是數學家， 他們已經蒐集了 近乎這十年來所有他們網站使用者的資料。 他們試着電子郵件尋找 我們用英語上 談論時間和自己的方式的模式， 以及我們和他人互動的模式。 他們發現了一些重要的有趣結果。 但我特別喜歡的結果之一是 在線上交友網站上 你的魅力程度並無法預測你的受歡迎程度， 事實上，讓人們覺得你很醜 可以讓你擁有優勢。 讓我向各位展示這是怎麼一回事。 在OkCupid的一個願願欄目中， 你可以評價人們的魅力值， 從1到5。 現在，如果我們比較這個分數，平均分數， 有多少人收到信息， 你就可以開始理解 在一個線上約會網站上魅力指數與受歡迎程度有關。

This is the graph the OkCupid guys have come up with. And the important thing to notice is that it's not totally true that the more attractive you are, the more messages you get. But the question arises then of what is it about people up here who are so much more popular than people down here, even though they have the same score of attractiveness? And the reason why is that it's not just straightforward looks that are important. So let me try to illustrate their findings with an example. So if you take someone like Portia de Rossi, for example, everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi is a very beautiful woman. Nobody thinks that she's ugly, but she's not a supermodel, either. If you compare Portia de Rossi to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker, now, a lot of people, myself included, I should say, think that Sarah Jessica Parker is seriously fabulous and possibly one of the most beautiful creatures to have ever have walked on the face of the Earth. But some other people, i.e., most of the Internet to think that she looks a bit like a , I think that if you ask people how attractive they thought Jessica Parker or Portia de Rossi were, and you ask them to give them a score between one and five I reckon that they'd average out to have roughly the same score. But the way that people would vote would be very different. So Portia's scores would all be clustered around the four because everybody agrees that she's very beautiful, whereas Sarah Jessica Parker completely divides opinion. There'd be a huge spread in her scores. And actually it's this spread that counts. It's this spread that makes you more popular on an online Internet dating website. So what that means then is that if some people think that you're attractive, you're actually better off having some other people think that you're a massive minger. That's much better than everybody just thinking that you're the cute girl next door.

這是OkCupid得到的 圖表 。一件重要的值得注意的事是並不是越有魅力的人，收到的信息越多。 問題是，為什麼上面的這些人 比下面這些人要受歡迎得多， 即便他們都有相同的魅力值? 原因是，並不是直觀的外貌是重要的。 讓我來談談他們的發現，以一個案例説明。 如果你拿Portia de Rossi為例， 每個人都同意Portia de Rossi是個非常美麗的女人， 沒有人覺得她醜，但她也不是超模。 如果你拿某個人，比如莎拉傑西卡帕克(譯者注：慾望都市女主角)狀語從句：來她比較 許多人，包括我自己，我應該會説， Sarah Jessica Parker魅力極為出眾， 有可能是地表上 最美麗的物種之一。 但許多其他人，比如，大多數的網友似乎 都認為她看起來像馬。(笑聲) 如果你問人們他們覺得自己有多美， 莎拉傑西卡帕克或波蒂亞德羅西 你要他們給自己打分，從1到5， 我猜他們也會大約 。一個和大家都差不多的數字 但是人們投票的方式各自不同。 因此鮑西婭的分數會聚集在4分左右， 因為所有人都同意，她非常美麗， 然而人們對莎拉·傑西卡·帕克卻有截然不同的意見。 她的分差懸殊很大。 然而，事實上，就是那分差別具意義， 那差異讓你 在交友網站上受歡迎。 所以那意味着 如果有些人認為你別具魅力， 你最好有其他人認為 你很醜。 那遠優於所有人認為 你的英文鄰家的女孩可愛。

Now, I think this begins to make a bit more sense when you think in terms of the people who are sending these messages. So let's say that you think somebody's attractive, but you suspect that other people won't necessarily be that interested. That means there's less competition for you and it's an extra incentive for you to get in touch. Whereas compare that to if you think somebody is attractive but you suspect that everybody is going to think they're attractive. Well, why would you bother humiliating yourself, let's be honest? But here's where the really interesting part comes. Because when people choose the pictures that they use on an online dating website, they often try to minimize the things that they think some people will find unattractive. The classic example is people who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight deliberately choosing a very cropped photo,or bald men, for example, deliberately choosing pictures where they're wearing hats. But actually this is the opposite of what you should do if you want to be successful. You should really, instead, play up to whatever it is that makes you different, even if you think that some people will find it unattractive. Because the people who fancy you are just going to fancy you anyway, and the unimportant losers who don't, well, they only play up to your advantage.

當你們開始思考一下這些寄送信息的人的話， 這開始變得合理些了。 這麼説吧，假設你認為那個人很美， 但你同時猜想其他人並不會和你有同樣的審美觀。 那就意味着，你的競爭對手略少， 這就給你增加了額外的動機去與他/她認識。 與之相對的情況是你認為某人很有吸引力， 但你猜想所有其他的人都認為那人很有吸引力， 嗯，讓我們面對事實為什麼要自取其辱呢呢? 這就是最 有趣 的部分。因為當人們去選擇他們在交友網站上使用的照片時，他們總是試圖最小化 其他人認為不吸引人之處的可能性。 最經典的例子是，那些體重略重的人 故意選擇一個剪裁非常不正的照片， 例如那些禿頂的男士， 故意去選擇他們帶着帽子的照片。 但你的行為是與你的目標相悖的， 如果你想要在網上交友成功。 你真的應該，去選擇讓你看起來與眾不同的照片， 即便你 為某些人會對此失去興趣。 因為那些喜歡你的人無論如何都會去喜歡你， 而那些不重要的路人只是渲染你的優勢。

OK, Top Tip #2: How to pick the perfect partner. So let's imagine then that you're a roaring success on the dating scene. But the question arises of how do you then convert that success into longer-term happiness, and in particular, how do you decide when is the right time to settle down? Now generally, it's not advisable to just cash in and marry the first person who comes along and shows you any interest at all. But, equally, you don't really want to leave it too long if you want to maximize your chance of long-term happiness. As my favorite author, Jane Austen, puts it, "An unmarried woman of seven and twenty can never hope to feel or inspire affection again."(Laughter)Thanks a lot, Jane. What do you know about love?

好了，最高祕訣2號：如何選擇完美的伴侶。 讓我們想象你的約會 精彩成功。 但問題來了你如何將那成功的約會 轉變成長期的快樂，尤其是， 你要如何選擇在哪個時刻安定下來? 一般來説，並建議人們立刻 與第一個出現 對你表達好感的人結婚。 但是，一般來説，如果你想要最大化你未來數十年幸福婚姻的機會， 你也不願等待太久。 我最喜歡的作家簡·奧斯汀這樣説， “一個未婚的27歲女子 就別指望再能感受或激發愛情了。” (笑聲) 這太嚴重了，簡。你對愛了解多少呢?

So the question is then, how do you know when is the right time to settle down, given all the people that you can date in your lifetime? Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit of mathematics that we can use to help us out here, called optimal stopping theory. So let's imagine, then, that you start dating when you're 15 and ideally, you'd like to be married by the time that you're 35. And there's a number of people that you could potentially date across your lifetime, and they'll be at varying levels of goodness. Now the rules are that once you cash in and get married, you can't look ahead to see what you could have had, and equally, you can't go back and change your mind. In my experience at least, I find that typically people don't much like being recalled years after being passed up for somebody else, or that's just me.

那麼問題來了， 你怎麼知道哪個時刻是該安定下來的時刻， 畢竟生命中你有很多可能的對象? 幸好，我們可以運用一點兒數學 來幫助我們計算解決這個問題，名叫“最優停止理論“。 那麼讓我們來想象一下， 你在15歲的時候開始交往， 理想狀態下，你在35歲的時候會結婚。 你的人生中 有很多 潛在 的約會對象，他們都有各自的優點。規則是，你一旦跳進婚姻， 你就不能繼續前進尋找你可能可以有的對象， 你也不能回頭來改變你的主意。 我個人的經驗看來， 一般人們不希望 在被拒絕又過了多年後被找回來，也許只有我這樣想。

So the math says then that what you should do in the first 37 percent of your dating window, you should just reject everybody as serious marriage p then, you should pick the next person that comes along that is better than everybody that you've seen before. So here's the example. Now if you do this, it can be mathematically proven, in fact, that this is the best possible way of maximizing your chances of finding the perfect partner. Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that this method does come with some risks. For instance, imagine if your perfect partner appeared during your first 37 percent. Now, unfortunately, you'd have to reject , if you're following the maths, I'm afraid no one else comes along that's better than anyone you've seen before, so you have to go on rejecting everyone and die ably surrounded by cats ling at your remains.

告訴數學我們 你應該拒絕認為會在狀語從句：你人生約會週期 前37%時段出現的任何人有嚴肅認真的婚姻關係。 接着，你要選擇下一個人， 那個比你以前約會對象都好的人。 這裏舉 幾例 。如果你這麼做，從數學證明來看可以認為，事實上這可能是最好的選擇 來最大化你找到完美伴侶的機會。 現在不幸的是，我必須告訴你這個方法也是有風險的。 比如，想象一下，你假設完美的伴侶 出現在你約會歷程的前37% 那就很不幸了，你會拒絕他們。 如果你相信數學， 恐怕你不會再找到 比你以往見過更好的對象， 你就會持續拒絕每個人然後孤獨終老。 可能會被貓咪包圍一點點啃食你的遺骸。

OK, another risk is, let's imagine, instead, that the first people that you dated in your first 37 percent are just incredibly dull, boring, terrible people. That's OK, because you're in your rejection phase, so that's fine, you can reject them. But then imagine the next person to come along is just marginally less boring, dull and terrible everybody that you've seen before. Now, if you are following the maths, I'm afraid you have to marry them end up in a relationship which is, frankly, suboptimal. Sorry about that. But I do think that there's an opportunity here for Hallmark to cash in on and really cater for this market. A Valentine's Day card like this."My darling husband, you are marginally less terrible than the first 37 percent of people I dated."It's actually more romantic than I normally manage.

好，另一個風險是，讓我們想象，相反的， 你約會歷程前37%裏第一個對象 極度愚蠢，無聊又很糟糕。 沒事，因為你還在拒絕對象的階段， 沒問題，你可以拒絕他們。 但想象一下，下一個出現的人 只是沒那麼無聊，愚蠢 比你以前的對象都略好那麼一點兒。 如果你 遵循數學，恐怕你要和他們結婚然後沉浸在一段，實話説，次優的關係中。 很抱歉。 但我認為，機會還是有的 賀曼公司迎風市場需求 出售這樣的情人節賀卡。(笑聲) “我親愛的丈夫，你沒有 我約會歷程中前37%的男士那麼糟糕“。 這比一般的賀卡浪漫很多。

OK, so this method doesn't give you a 100 percent success rate, but there's no other possible strategy that can do any better. And actually, in the wild, there are certain types of fish which follow and employ this exact strategy. So they reject every possible suitor that turns up in the first 37 percent of the mating season, and then they pick the next fish that comes along after that window that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier than all of the fish that they've seen before. I also think that subconsciously, humans, we do sort of do this anyway. We give ourselves a little bit of time to play the field, get a feel for the marketplace or whatever when we're young. And then we only start looking seriously at potential marriage candidates once we hit our mid-to-late 20s. I think this is conclusive proof, if ever it were needed, that everybody's brains are prewired to be just a little bit mathematical.

這個數學方法不能保證100%的成功率， 但也沒有更好的策略了。 事實上，在動物界，某個特定種類的魚 遵循使用這樣的策略。 在交配期，它們拒絕 出現在前37%的每個求婚者， 接着它們選擇37%後出現的下一個 比所見過的魚 體型更加龐大，更加結實的魚。 我想作為人類我們潛意識裏也在做同樣的選擇。 我們給自己更多時間尋找， 在我們年輕的時候感受婚戀市場。 我們只有在20歲年齡段的中後期 才會很真尋找潛在的結婚對象。 我想這證明了，即使不確定是否需要， 每個人的大腦都預配了點兒數學能力。

OK, so that was Top Tip #2. Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce. OK, so let's imagine then that you picked your perfect partner and you're settling into a lifelong relationship with them. Now, I like to think that everybody would ideally like to avoid divorce, apart from, I don't know, Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?But it's a sad fact of modern life that one in two marriages in the States ends in divorce, with the rest of the world not being far behind. Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps for thinking that the arguments that precede a marital breakup are not an ideal candidate for mathematical investigation. For one thing, it's very hard to know what you should be measuring or what you should be quantifying. But this didn't stop a psychologist, John Gottman, who did exactly that. Gottman observed hundreds of couples having a conversation and recorded, well, everything you can think of. So he recorded what was said in the conversation, he recorded their skin conductivity, he recorded their facial expressions, their heart rates, their blood pressure, basically everything apart from whether or not the wife was actually always right, which incidentally she totally is. But what Gottman and his team found was that one of the most important predictors for whether or not a couple is going to get divorced was how positive or negative each partner was being in the conversation.

好，上述就是最高祕訣2號。 現在，最高祕訣3號：如何避免離婚。 好的，讓我們想象一下你找到了你的完美對象 你和他/她進入了一生的婚姻關係。 我假設每個人都不希望離婚， 當然，也許除了Piers Morgan的太太? 可是，現代婚姻一個悲傷的 事實就是美國離婚率高達50%， 世界其他國家也離這個數據不遠。 當然，你可以認為 婚姻破裂的原因 不是數學運算理想的數據源。 一方面來説，很難了解到 你該去測量什麼或者是你該去量化什麼。但這 並沒有阻止心理學家John Gottman做這樣的研究 。Gottman觀察了數百對夫婦的對談 儘可能錄下來所有信息。 記錄了對話的內容， 皮膚的傳導性， 面部表情， 心跳，血壓， 基本上除了“太太永遠是對的”以外的所有東西， 當然，太太永遠是對的。 但是，高特曼他狀語從句：團隊的發現 最能夠準確預測 這對夫妻是否會未來的離婚 的英文 方在對話過程中積極還是消極。

Now, couples that were very low-risk scored a lot more positive points on Gottman's scale than negative. Whereas bad relationships, by which I mean, probably going to get divorced, they found themselves getting into a spiral of negativity. Now just by using these very simple ideas, Gottman and his group were able to predict whether a given couple was going to get divorced with a 90 percent accuracy. But it wasn't until he teamed up with a mathematician, James Murray, that they really started to understand what causes these negativity spirals and how they occur. And the results that they found, I think, are just incredibly impressively simple and interesting. So these equations predict how the wife or husband is going to respond in their next turn of the conversation, how positive or negative they're going to be. And these equations depend on the mood of the person when they're on their own, the mood of the person when they're with their partner, but most importantly, they depend on how much the husband and wife influence one another.

那些離婚風險很低的夫妻 在戈特曼的測試中得到了更多正面而不是負面的分數。 相反的，在糟糕的關係中， 我是指那些可能離婚的夫妻， 他們發現自己沉浸在消極的漩渦中。 就用這些非常簡單的方法， Gottman和他的團隊能夠準確預測 一對夫妻是否會離婚， 準確率高達90% 但是，直到他與數學家James Murray聯手， 他們才真正找出 那些消極漩渦是如何產生，為什麼產生的。 結果是他們發現 我認為不可思議議太令人驚歎的簡單而 有趣 。這些算式，他們用來預測妻子或是丈夫是如何去迴應他們下一段對話， 他們的積極或消極程度是多少。 這些算式，取決於 當他們獨處時各自的情緒， 當他們和伴侶在一起時候的情緒， 但最重要的是， 取決於丈夫和妻子相互間的影響。

Now, I think it's important to point out at this stage, that these exact equations have also been shown to be perfectly able at describing what happens between two countries in an arms that an arguing couple spiraling into negativity and teetering on the brink of divorce is actually mathematically equivalent to the beginning of a nuclear war.

在這個階段我認為最重要的是， 這個一模一樣的算式 同時也可以完美預測 兩個國家是否會開戰。因此一對沉浸於消極情緒 在離婚邊緣搖擺的夫妻 - 實際在數學上等同於即將開始一場核戰爭。

But the really important term in this equation is the influence that people have on one another, and in particular, something called "the negativity threshold." Now, the negativity threshold, you can think of as how annoying the husband can be before the wife starts to get really pissed off, and vice versa. Now, I always thought that good marriages were about compromise and understanding and allowing the person to have the space to be themselves. So I would have thought that perhaps the most successful relationships were ones where there was a really high negativity threshold. Where couples let things go and only brought things up if they really were a big deal. But actually, the mathematics and subsequent findings by the team have shown the exact opposite is true. The best couples, or the most successful couples, are the ones with a really low negativity threshold. These are the couples that don't let anything go unnoticed and allow each other some room to complain. These are the couples that are continually trying to repair their own relationship, that have a much more positive outlook on their marriage. Couples that don't let things go and couples that don't let trivial things end up being a really big deal.

事實上，這個算式最重要的部分 是人們給對方帶來的影響， 尤其是消極閾值。 消極閾值， 你可以認為它指的是 丈夫 討厭到什麼程度就能惹到妻子真的暴怒，或者是相相。我一直認為美好的婚姻是基於妥協和理解 並且給對方留下獨處空間。 我會想，最成功的關係是 當那裏有非常高的消極閾值時 夫妻共同選擇不去理會這些問題。 只有在非常嚴重的時候才會嚴肅討論。 事實上，團隊得出的數學運算結果和後續研究成果顯示 完全相反的結果。 最完美的夫妻，最成功的夫妻， 有着很低的消極閾值。 這些夫妻不會忽視矛盾 給 對方抱怨的空間。這些夫妻持續努力修復他們的關係， 他們對自己的婚姻有着非常積極的預期。 他們不會忽略矛盾 他們不會讓一件件瑣碎的小事堆積成為巨大的問題。

Now of course, it takes a bit more than just a low negativity threshold and not compromising to have a successful relationship. But I think that it's quite interesting to know that there is really mathematical evidence to say that you should never let the sun go down on your anger.

當然，這不僅僅是一個低消極閾值 和對成功關係毫不妥協的態度。 但我認為，很 有趣 的是真的有數學證據來證明你永遠不該長時間積存憤怒，太陽要下山了。(譯者注：這句話出自聖經)

So those are my top three tips of how maths can help you with love and relationships. But I hope, that aside from their use as tips, they also give you a little bit of insight into the power of mathematics. Because for me, equations and symbols aren't just a thing. They're a voice that speaks out about the incredible richness of nature and the startling simplicity in the patterns that twist and turn and warp and evolve all around us, from how the world works to how we behave. So I hope that perhaps, for just a couple of you, a little bit of insight into the mathematics of love can persuade you to have a little bit more love for mathematics.

上述就是我的三條最高祕訣， 有關數學如何讓你有更美好的愛情和關係。 我希望，除了作為愛情祕訣， 它們也展示了數學的力量。 對我來説，算式和符號不僅僅是一樣東西。 它們表達出自然令人讚歎的豐富性 以及簡化 那些我們身邊扭曲，旋轉，包圍，進化的事物， 從世界是如何運作的，到人類行為舉止。 我希望，你們也許中的一部分人 能夠了解一些愛的數學運算， 能夠讓你愛數學稍微多一點。

Thank you.

謝謝。